Volatile October likely for markets, short positions to influence Nifty

By Anand James

We had gone in last week expecting HDFC Bank to embark on the next leg of extended declines, aiming 1370-20. However, given the slow down in downside momentum, we are weighing the prospects of a recovery attempt being made while inside the 1525-1460 region, or an outright recovery and push above 1570 which could also serve to lessen the heavy bearish bias the stock has been bearing lately. That said, the prospects of a vertical rise look low, but whichever way this stock swings, it can have a bearing on the prospects of Bank Nifty, given the 29% weightage it has in Bank Nifty index. Meanwhile, more than 50% of Bank Nifty constituents are still above 50DMA, suggesting that the index could find new leaders. Also the Index as such appears due for a bounce back, but we would be first interested in initiating shorts on pull back to 45,000. However, we feel that, after due consolidation, the latter part of October could see a breakout beyond thi…